MetServ: Forecast: Convective Outlook 8th - 9th June 2010

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Forecast: Convective Outlook 8th - 9th June 2010

Jun 06 2010 06:22 | Grant  in News Archive -----
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http://ukasf.co.uk/i...6284a14b454.png

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-07 22:20:00
Valid: 2010-06-08 00:00:00 - 2010-06-08 23:59:00

Regions Affected
East Anglia, Midlands, C + S Wales, SE, CS & SW England (all of England and Wales south of Mersey-Humber are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Doris" becomes centred over the south Irish Sea on Tuesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

South of a north-ward moving occlusion, located over northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, numerous showers and local thunderstorms are expected to develop as a result of daytime heating and instability. It seems likely that the showers may form distinct lines along convergence zones, particularly in a SW-NE orientation over the Midlands.

Light winds will ensure that any showers are slow moving, with the potential for a weak convergence-type funnel possible. Showers will generally decrease in coverage from the south later in the afternoon and become increasingly isolated through the remainder of the evening hours.

Lightning: http://ukasf.co.uk/m...http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-298/

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Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 08 Jun 2010 06:00 to Wed 09 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Jun 2010 21:08
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for NW Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and lesser extent for tornadoes and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Czech Republic, SE Germany and N Austria mainly for large hail and strong wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for east-central France mainly for marginally large hail and a brief tornado.

SYNOPSIS

Weak geopetential heights are placed over much of Europe while a large trough over western Europe slowly shifts southwards and transforms into an upper low towards the Wednesday morning. Another short-wave trough continues eastwards from Baltic states into NW Russia.
At surface, a frontal boundary extends from NW Russia into central Europe where it advects northwards as a warm front during the second half of the period. Another front extends from the large surface low over UK SW-wards across central France into Iberian peninsula. The third front races onto western Iberia overnight when the upper low/new system approaches.

DISCUSSION

Nope!

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