UK White Christmas Forecasts 2011

Welcome to the 2011 White Christmas Forecast Season!

Celebrating 5 Years of White Christmas Forecasts by SW

Whilst it becomes ever more difficult each year to produce these forecasts with time restraints there was no way I was going to let this ever popular forecast slip the net, especially as this year celebrates 5 years since they started! The last 2 Christmas Day's have produced a White Christmas of sorts for many but will 2011 make it third time lucky? Keep following here for updates as the final weeks pass by in the run up to Christmas.

Unfortunately with time ever being the enemy nowadays, I have no time to be fiddling with the maps this year but the text forecasts will be exactly how you have got used to them before with the highest risk, discussion and summary etc. Hopefully it will still give a full picture of the Big day and of course we hope it is a white one! Forecast frequency is significantly reduced upon previous years but will maintain updates where possible.

As ever, for now we will be taking our forecasts using special Long Range models and other predictions and as we get closer to the big day, the Medium and short term models.

Metserv will always have the latest forecast first before anywhere else has it so make sure your here to find out!

Discussion is in this thread: http://www.metserv.i...011-discussion/

Here is this years forecasting Schedule though it is subject to SIGNIFICANT change throughout this period:

November: 5th, 12th, 19th, 26th

December: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd & 24th

*Schedule Subject to major changes

So, if anyone you know wants to know the weather this Christmas, get them here and with very regular updates you can be certain that upto date information is always available.

Thanks, SW.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please note: Risk Percentages are based on the current forecast and latest trends. E.g a 90% risk will Not be given on 1 model run forecasting widespread snow when all the other runs dont!

This post has been promoted to an article

Welcome to the first forecast of 2011 White Christmas Forecast season!

Date of Forecast: Sunday 6th November 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 12th November 2010 by 9pm
Highest expected Risk: 20% across Northern Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: After consistently following the long range models, notably the CFS, quite an obvious trend has persisted around the Big Day. Unfortunately that is for a green and mild Christmas right now with Low pressure to the North West and High pressure to our East towards European mainland thus equalling a mild flow with wet conditions especially in the North West. Possible Gales would be possible from tight pressure gradients as a result. However the CFS is toying with a few cold spells throughout December following from what looks to be an exceptionally mild November (And the rest of Autumn!). Some are hinting that the current Mild pattern may begin to break at the very end of November which could enter the UK into something more seasonal in to December. But for now the current risk of a White Christmas is not great but a long way to go and of course, keep checking here for regular updates!

Temperatures: Fairly mild with temperatures between 7 and 13c. Feeling cooler in the wind and on high ground.

Summary: Currently a Green Christmas is more likely and fairly mild, possibly wet but a long way to go yet so expect plenty of changes!

Date of Forecast: Sunday 13th November 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 19th November 2011 by 9pm
Highest expected Risk: 15% across Northern Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: This weeks update sees a downgrade upon the forecast of last week. The reason for this is pretty poor signals for anything widespread and decently cold in December. Whilst the CFS is sometimes not regarded as the best models there has been some excellent consistency in recent times and that is for very little chance of anything cold and snowy for the Big day. In fact it doesn't really suggest Winter starting until at least Mid January! But back to Christmas Day pressure patterns look likely at this moment in time to favour winds from the west or South. The current Euro Block is proving exceptionally stubborn. Although shorter range models like the GFS and ECM hint at this weakening and breaking down to an extent soon will it reform especially given its firm grip of recently? Whilst things don't look Mild for Christmas Day right now it does not look cold either right now but check back here next week for another update.

Temperatures: Generally average temperatures, perhaps cool but not really cold enough for anything wintry except away from high ground perhaps. Temperatures 5-10c.

Summary: Still much more chance of a Green rather than White Christmas. The Long range models have been consistent in a fairly snowless December currently.

Apologies for the lateness of this update!

Date of Forecast: Monday 21st November 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 26th November 2011 by 9pm
Highest expected Risk: 20% across Northern Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: A slight upgrade on this update but not by much. November and previous weeks has been dominated by exceptionally persistent mild southerlies thanks to High pressure stuck to our East. However there are signs a more mobile pattern will begin to take form from this week onwards though High pressure perhaps clinging on in the south. Cooler more average temperatures are likely with winds from the West. If Low pressure gets top to the East of the UK, it can drag in some colder Polar Maritime air with a risk of wintry conditions. This cant be ruled out during December although the overall outlook says no to any sustained cold or snow during the last month of 2011. In summary a more mobile pattern is likely into December with cooler weather including spells of rain and wind. Brief North Westerly or Northerly winds are possible which may bring the risk of some sleet or snow. A cool Christmas Day is currently likely and much more likely to be green rather than white!

Temperatures: Generally average temperatures, perhaps quite chilly with temperatures ranging from 4-9c.

Summary: Perhaps an Unsettled outlook but the Euro High may form again into December bringing back the mild winds. Snow still looking quite unlikely.

Date of Forecast: Saturday 26th November 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 3rd December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 30% across Northern & Western Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: Overall since the last update not much change although another slight increase in risk for a white Christmas this year. The reasoning behind this is currently the projection of fairly average perhaps cool zonality at times in December. No significant cold looks likely but brief, perhaps frequent Polar Maritime incursions may swiftly pass the UK on the back of Low pressure systems. This would bring a day or two risk of wintry showers especially on high ground of Scotland and perhaps the Pennines, Lake District and Snowdonia. However there is a possibility the Euro high or high pressure of some sort becoming more dominant again particularly by mid month. How long this would last is open to question should it arrive. The charts have certainly moved to a more mobile pattern in the short term with fairly cool, briefly cold weather at times. It should be emphasised that at this moment in time, a significant cold spell looks very unlikely however short lived PM incursions are at a moderate risk currently. If High pressure is in place, a risk of frost and dense fog cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures: Cool to average perhaps Cold in the North. Temperatures ranging from 2-7c.

Summary: Low/Moderate chance of a brief colder incursion on the back of a Low pressure system with a risk of wintry showers however it is more likely to be mild than not.

Date of Forecast: Saturday 3rd December 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 10th December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 25% across Northern & Western Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: The first full week of December is looking pretty wintry for the North, and overall very typical for December. Towards Mid month there is a fairly strong signal for the Azores High to move in bringing cool, frosty and perhaps foggy weather. How long this lasts is open to question for now but it could last very close to the Big day. The other option right now is low pressure out to our West as teleconnections continue to suggest very poor signals for any sustained, deep cold weather. The hills of the north will always have a slightly higher risk of snow but on the whole, a cold spell on Christmas Day looks very slim this year. Plenty of time for change yet however although the Long range models are continuous in suggesting no major cold for the Big Day. In next weeks update we should be able to begin to use the medium range models to take into account for forecasting. In summary, a cool to possibly mild Christmas Day likely with rain threatening especially in the North. In the South, drier conditions more likely where High pressure is more likely to be.

Temperatures: Cool to slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures ranging from 4-10c.

Summary: Still unlikely to see a White Christmas this year. Low pressure to the North West giving Westerly or South Westerly Winds or High pressure bringing SW'ly or even Southerly winds possible.

Date of Forecast: Saturday 10th December 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 17th December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 10% across Northern & Western Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: With Christmas Day now just in to the Mid Range of some models and combined with Longer Range output, the Big day is likely to be wet, windy and green. There is a chance High pressure may influence the south but here too, a green Christmas is likely. Perhaps some wintriness on the highest ground in the North but overall, winds do not look likely to be orientated in a favourable for the big day at least right now. Some gales, possibly severe gales are likely in the North but calmer in the South but still very windy perhaps. There is still plenty of time for change however right now compared to the last two years, a marked difference with green grass more likely to be seen than crisp white snow. Temperatures cool to possibly mild.

Temperatures: Cool to slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures ranging from 5-11c.

Summary: Most likely to be a wet and windy Christmas day, something not seen for some years. Perhaps some wintriness as a result on the highest ground but otherwise, cool to mild and green!

8 Nights Till Christmas!
Daily Forecasts From Tuesday to Christmas Eve!

Date of Forecast: Saturday 17th December 2011
Next Forecast: Tuesday 20th December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 10% across Northern & Western Scotland especially on high ground.

Forecast: Models beginning to become clearer on the outlook now and sadly, a green Christmas looks very likely. After this weekend cold 'blip' ends, High pressure forms in an unfavourable position to our South pumping in some very warm upper air, transferring to Mild weather on the ground. However the winds then move to the WNW or NW on Christmas Eve which may bring sleet and snow showers to a fair western parts, especially near coasts. Unfortunately, this colder air quickly gets shunted away by milder, wetter weather. Christmas Day itself looks to bring rain or showers to many parts with possible gales in the NW, perhaps staying dry in the Midlands and South but with temperatures far away from snow possibilities. Only the highest Scottish mountains look like they may have something wintry. Still time for some change though, and the brief colder air may get pushed back but for now, a cool to mild Christmas day with rain or showers for most looks increasingly likely.

Temperatures: Cool to slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures ranging from 5-13c.

Summary: Wet, perhaps some gales in the NW. Generally mild with any wintriness on the highest Scottish peaks only.

4 Nights Till Christmas!
Daily Forecasts From Today to Christmas Eve!

Date of Forecast: Wednesday 21st December 2011
Next Forecast: Thursday 22nd December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 5% across the peaks of the Scottish Mountains and Northern Isles.

Forecast: The recent cold spell has now ended with much milder, sometimes above average temperatures under way. Things cool down briefly on Friday with perhaps some wintry showers in the North but by Christmas Eve this will have cleared with temperatures rising but more normal than above. The same applies to Christmas Day, too warm for any snow but not too mild. A mostly cloudy day is likely with some rain advancing in the North and North West. There could be a risk of flooding in Western Scotland as highlighted by the current Met Office Yellow alert. Gales also appear a possibility in the North West especially in the first half of the day. This weather is thanks to High pressure to our South and Low pressure to the North West, pumping in South Westerly winds keeping things average or mild. If any snow falls it will only be on the highest Scottish peaks, perhaps a wintry shower in the Shetland Isles where some cooler air may still sit but even here the risk is low. It is now very likely 2011 will be a green Christmas, much different to 2009 and 2010!

Temperatures: Cool to slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures ranging from 7-11c.

Summary: Mostly dry in the South, some rain in the North perhaps some gales in the NW early on. Generally mild with any wintriness on the highest Scottish peaks only but even here, a low risk.

3 Nights Till Christmas!
Date of Forecast: Thursday 22nd December 2011
Next Forecast: Friday 23rd December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 1% across the peaks of the Scottish Mountains and Northern Isles.

Forecast:The forecast today is no different and will not really change any more. A very mild Christmas day is now likely. Temperatures may reach 14c with a 15c not out of the question, not far off the record of 15.6c set in 1896 in Leith, Nr Edinburgh. In fact, Edinburgh is likely to be one of the warmest places on the big day itself. What a contrast to last year! Whilst Mild, in the North it is likely to be cloudy with some heavy, persistent rain in the NW which as outlined by the Met Office Yellow warning, flooding could be a possible issue. Especially in the morning, it will be very windy with gusts possibly reaching 60mph for a time in exposed parts. In the South temperatures will actually be a touch cooler with 12c the likely maximum however here it will be drier and although cloudy for most, some sunny intervals are likely in the South and South East, perhaps extending in to the Midlands briefly. Essentially though, a green Christmas and a far cry from the scenes last year.

Temperatures: Mild. Temperatures ranging from 9-15c.

Summary: Mostly dry in the South, some rain in the North perhaps some gales in the NW early on. Mild with a maximum of 14 or 15c possible in North Eastern Scotland!

2 Nights Till Christmas!
Date of Forecast: Friday 23rd December 2011
Next Forecast: Saturday 24th December 2011 by 23:59pm
Highest expected Risk: 1% across the peaks of the Scottish Mountains.

Forecast: Again, no change today. A firmly mild or even very mild day is in store with a much greater chance of breaking the highest Christmas Day temperature record than a flake of snow falling even at the top of Ben Nevis! North East Scotland is likely to record the highest temperature of the big day with 14 or 15c likely with the record being beaten of 15.6 made in 1896 not without possibility of being reached. The picture remains exactly the same as last nights forecasts. Mostly cloudy for all with rain in the North West and a continued flooding risk as outlined by the Met Office. Gales are likely with gusts up to 70mph in exposed places early on Christmas morning in the far North West. Elsewhere it will be dry, perhaps a few sunny spells in the SE and in NE England but even this looks limited. Temperatures in England look to reach more 12c at best but still way above average for the time of year. Perhaps Christmas Day sums up 2011. Generally quiet but temperature records being the most dominant weather story of the year, especially that early October heatwave we enjoyed and the exceptional spell we enjoyed in Spring. Could the big day deliver the last record of 2011?

Temperatures: Mild. Temperatures ranging from 9-15c.

Summary: Mostly dry in the South, some rain in the North perhaps some gales in the NW early on. Mild with a maximum of 14 or 15c possible in North Eastern Scotland!

1 Night Till Christmas!
Bored? Track Santa Here!

Date of Forecast: Saturday 24th December 2011
Next Forecast: November 2012
Highest expected Risk: 1% across the peaks of the Scottish Mountains.

Forecast: So here we are, Christmas Eve and as expected no change to the forecast. Compared to last year, many places will be some 15-20c warmer! A very mild day is expected, especially in the North where 15c could be reached particularly in Aberdeenshire with an outside chance the record of 15.6c made in 1896 being matched or breached however this looks fairly unlikely but not impossible. In summary, a mostly cloudy is in store for the majority with heavy rain in the Western Highlands where a flood risk is prevalent. Rain also in the Shetland and Orkney Isles, Northern Ireland, Snowdonia and Lake District areas. The East may see some sunny skies however, particularly in SE England, East Anglia, NE England and perhaps NE Scotland. Some brighter spells may extend into the Midlands for a time though the main weather here shall be cloudy. Those in the far North West and Shetland & Orkney should be aware it will be very windy for a time with gale force gusts possible. A low risk of 90mph gusts is possible in Shetland. So, in summary a very green Christmas day with no snow forecast anywhere. Here is a more look at some of our major cities from North to South...

Aberdeen: Some sunny spells. Max temp: 14c
Edinburgh: Mostly cloudy, some brightness. Max temp: 13c
Glasgow: Rain, sometimes heavy. Max temp: 12c
Belfast: Cloudy, some light rain possible later. Max temp: 13c
Newcastle: Mostly cloudy. Max temp: 13c
York: Mostly cloudy, some bright spells. Max temp: 12c
Manchester: Cloudy. Max temp: 12c
Sheffield: Mostly cloudy, some brightness. Max temp: 11c
Norwich: Mostly cloudy, some sunny spells possible. Max temp: 11c
Birmingham: Mostly cloudy, some brightness. Max temp: 12c
Cardiff: Cloudy, a little light rain later. Max temp: 11c
London: Cloudy, some brightness. Max temp: 12c
Southampton: Mostly cloudy, a few sunny spells possible. Max temp: 11c
Exeter: Mostly cloudy, a little brightness. Max temp: 12c

Temperatures: Mild. Temperatures ranging from 9-14c.

Summary: Green, green, green grass! Hopefully these forecasts will return for their 6th year in 2012!